Why We Are Starting This Series
Brazil is not a country too poor or powerless to act.
It is one of the world’s major economies, and Rio de Janeiro is an international city known across the globe.
Brazil’s Economy at a Glance
| Year | GDP | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $655 billion | $3,767 |
| 2011 | $2.62 trillion | $13,397 |
| 2020 | $1.48 trillion | $7,074 |
| 2025 | $2.28 trillion | $10,713 |
World Bank data show the scale of Brazil’s rise, setback and recovery. The economy expanded dramatically through the 2000s, while GDP per capita peaked above $13,000 in 2011 before falling sharply and later recovering. In 2025, Brazil still had a $2.28 trillion economy, with 2.3% GDP growth, 6.0% unemployment and 5.0% inflation. World Bank data.
Brazil therefore does not lack an economic base. That makes the persistence of severe insecurity in the daily lives of so many citizens even more important to examine.
Yet in the same city, many residents see buses stop when gunfire begins, children miss school, and workers lose income because they cannot get to work.
Some families save money to move somewhere safer. Others know the danger but still have to go back out onto the streets to support their families.
This is where this series begins.
If a country has institutions and resources to protect its citizens, why do so many people still have to put both their lives and livelihoods at risk?
How did criminal organizations become powerful enough to control parts of a major city? Why has the state struggled to push them back? And what have politics and public institutions done in response to a problem that has persisted for so long?
World Hot Trend is not beginning this series to criticize Brazil.
We begin it in the hope that the confidence, vitality and promise that once made the world look to Brazil can shine again.
When ordinary people can leave home without fearing for their lives or livelihoods, Brazil’s real strength and potential can shine again.
With the hope that Brazil can reclaim that promise, World Hot Trend follows the reality facing its citizens today and the forces that created it.
People Who Have to Leave Home Even When They Are Afraid
Walking alone on a dark street late at night can frighten almost anyone.
But the situation changes when staying home is not an option.
Some people work in restaurants at night. Some leave for work before dawn. Delivery riders, bus drivers, hospital staff and security guards often have to work while everyone else is heading home.
For them, “Don’t go outside if it is dangerous” is not simple advice.
Staying home can mean missing work. It can mean giving up a day’s income.
Going to work, on the other hand, can mean accepting a risk to personal safety simply to protect a family’s livelihood.
In parts of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’s second-largest city, that choice is not an abstract fear. It is part of everyday life.
More Than Four in Ten Rio Residents Live Under Armed-Group Control or Influence
According to a 2024 analysis by GENI/UFF and Instituto Fogo Cruzado, 42.4% of Rio de Janeiro city residents lived in areas under the control or influence of criminal organizations or militias.
That is more than four out of every ten residents.
Of the city’s population, 36.3% were classified as living in areas directly controlled by armed groups.
In this research, “control” does not simply mean that criminals are present in a neighborhood. It describes areas where armed groups extract economic benefits, impose rules on residents and maintain their authority through actual or potential force.
This does not mean that everyone in those areas experiences gunfire every day.
Risk is not distributed evenly across Rio. The reality residents face differs sharply from one part of the city to another.
In the first half of 2026, 350 shootings were recorded in Rio’s North Zone, compared with 27 in the South Zone.
While internationally known areas such as Copacabana and Ipanema continue to function as major tourist districts, residents elsewhere in the city can see daily life interrupted by shootings and police operations.
Two very different realities can exist within the same city.
Gunfire Continued in 2026
In the first half of 2026, Fogo Cruzado recorded 629 shootings in the city of Rio de Janeiro.
Those shootings left 256 people dead and 226 injured.
That is an average of more than three recorded shootings per day over six months.
But those numbers alone do not capture the full impact on residents.
The people who are shot are the most direct victims. Yet when gunfire begins, roads can close and public transportation can stop.
Classes can be disrupted. Routes to hospitals can become inaccessible. Workers can be unable to reach their jobs, while those already at work may struggle to get home.
A single shooting can therefore change the day of far more people than those caught directly in the line of fire.
Public Transportation Interrupted 2,228 Times
A 2026 study by UNICEF, Instituto Fogo Cruzado and GENI/UFF shows how armed violence affects movement across Rio.
Between January 2023 and July 2025, the city recorded 2,228 public-transport interruptions associated with armed violence.
The analysis covered buses, BRT services, trains and the subway — transportation systems residents depend on every day.
An interruption lasted about seven hours on average, and one quarter lasted more than 11 hours.
In Penha, 633 interruption events were recorded during the study period, amounting to 176 cumulative days of disruption. Jacarepaguá recorded the equivalent of 128 days and Bangu 45 days.
These are not merely transportation statistics.
When a bus stops, the person who needs that bus to get to work stops too.
The route home for someone finishing a shift can disappear. A patient trying to reach a hospital can be affected. A parent trying to get a child to school can have the entire day disrupted.
The same research found that at least 188,694 students in Rio’s municipal school system had their journeys between home and school affected by public-transport interruptions linked to armed violence.
Another joint UNICEF study found that 55% of students in the capital were affected by armed violence.
When transportation stops, education, work, healthcare and family life can all be affected at the same time.
Choosing Safety Can Mean Losing Income
Ultimately, the problem reaches people’s livelihoods.
A study of residents in Complexo da Penha and Manguinhos in northern Rio examined how armed violence affected work and income. The figures should not be treated as citywide statistics: the research focused on two communities heavily exposed to armed violence and police operations.
Among residents in paid work, 60.4% said they had been unable to work because of armed violence or police operations.
Those who missed work lost an average of 7.5 working days per year.
Researchers estimated that lost work cost residents of the two communities about R$9.4 million in income annually.
When the cost of repairing and replacing property damaged during shootings and operations was included, the estimated annual economic loss reached roughly R$14 million.
Some 56.6% of residents said they had been unable to use transportation. Another 32.3% had been unable to attend a medical appointment, while 26% had been unable to study.
Staying home during gunfire may be safer.
But for someone whose income depends on working that day, staying home can also mean earning nothing.
Restaurant workers, cleaners, delivery riders and shopkeepers still have bills to pay. Some finish work late at night and have no choice but to make the journey home.
For a tourist, “Avoid dangerous areas” may simply mean changing an itinerary.
For someone who lives there and has to go to work every day, the same advice can sometimes amount to saying: “Give up today’s work.”
And the Next Day, They Still Have to Go to Work
Behind the statistics are people who still have to show up for work.
Gabriel Satyro, a 22-year-old resident of Complexo de Israel, told a UFF publication that police operations had caused him to arrive late for work or miss work entirely.
On one occasion, gunfire broke out while he was on his way to work.
As he ran down steps on a hillside, he found himself in an armed confrontation and feared for his safety.
But an experience like that does not make next month’s rent or living expenses disappear.
The next day, work remains.
He has to leave home again.
Sometimes he may have to take the same route again.
That is why the public-safety problem in parts of Rio goes beyond the fear of walking down a dark street.
It creates a contradiction in which people must earn money to live, yet may have to enter danger in order to earn it.
A Family That Saved Money to Escape the Violence
Douglas da Silva and his wife, Carine Ferreira dos Santos, also wanted a safer life for their two children.
According to Reuters’ account of the family, the couple worked and saved money, and about five years earlier moved their family out of a nearby favela and into a gated apartment complex.
Douglas worked delivering food and was also building a small business.
For the family, moving was not simply about finding a better home.
It was an attempt to put some distance between their children and violence.
On October 28, 2025, a massive police operation targeting Comando Vermelho took place in Rio.
Douglas was returning to his apartment after making a food delivery when police shot him near the entrance to the complex.
Police alleged that Douglas fled and fired a gun. His family disputed that account.
Video verified by Reuters showed police issuing commands at a stopped vehicle and gunfire before Douglas emerged from the vehicle injured.
Douglas was taken to a hospital and treated for his gunshot wounds.
He was the father of two children, aged five and nine.
Carine challenged the police account and fought to clear her husband’s name.
The family’s story matters because they were not moving toward danger.
They were trying to get away from it.
They worked.
They saved.
They moved somewhere they believed would be safer for their children.
And Douglas was shot while returning to that home.
Crime Takes More Than Lives
If Rio’s public-safety crisis is described only through death tolls, much of what ordinary residents lose remains invisible.
Death and injury are the most extreme consequences.
Long before that, violence is already changing everyday decisions.
Should a child go to school today?
Which route should someone take to work?
Are the buses running?
Should a person keep working after dark?
Can they get home safely when their shift ends?
And can they afford to give up today’s income simply to avoid danger?
The right to remain safe at home should not conflict with the right to work and support a family.
Yet in parts of Rio, residents repeatedly find themselves forced to navigate exactly that choice.
Crime takes more than lives and property.
It can erode the freedom to leave home without fear, the belief that a person can travel safely to work, and the ordinary confidence that working hard will allow a family to live securely.
Brazil has the capacity to change this reality.
That is why this series does not end with criticism of Brazil.
We hope for a society in which citizens no longer have to choose between life and livelihood; where children check the time for school rather than the sound of gunfire before leaving home; and where workers going to work and returning safely to their families is ordinary rather than remarkable.
That would be a starting point for Brazil to show its strength and promise again.
FAQ
Does 42.4% mean that 42.4% of Rio residents face gunfire every day?
No. The 42.4% figure refers to residents living in areas under the control or influence of armed criminal groups or militias. It does not mean that everyone in those areas experiences gunfire every day. The level of armed violence varies greatly by location.
Does this mean all of Rio de Janeiro is unsafe for tourists?
No. Armed violence is not evenly distributed across the city. Major tourist districts in Rio’s South Zone face a different level and type of risk from communities where territorial disputes between armed groups repeatedly occur. Visitors should still take precautions against crimes such as theft and robbery in tourist areas.
Does gun violence really affect people’s income?
Yes. In the study of Penha and Manguinhos, 60.4% of residents in paid work said armed violence or police operations had prevented them from working, and affected workers lost an average of 7.5 working days per year. These figures apply to the two high-risk communities studied, not to Rio’s entire population.
How serious are public-transport interruptions?
The UNICEF, Instituto Fogo Cruzado and GENI/UFF study recorded 2,228 public-transport interruptions in Rio between January 2023 and July 2025. An interruption lasted about seven hours on average, and at least 188,694 municipal-school students had their journeys to school affected.
Next: Who Controls These Areas?
To understand how this reality can change, we first have to examine the structure that helped create it.
How did armed organizations become powerful enough to exert direct influence over everyday life in parts of Rio?
How did they gain enough power to control territory inside one of Brazil’s most important cities?
And why do ordinary residents have to share their communities with organizations that wield such power?
Part 2 examines Brazil’s two major criminal organizations, Comando Vermelho and PCC, tracing their growth and systems of control through the eyes of the citizens who live with the consequences.